April 16 - Natural Gas is still sinking.
The Natural Gas market continues to provide steady gains for those who short it. Many analysts have called many bottoms over the past couple of years but the market continues to plod steadily downwards. We continue to remain short and will only go meaningfully long when the prices rather than the pundits tell us that the long side is the right side.
This commentary is produced by Acorn Global Investments Inc. (“Acorn”). Opinions expressed here adapt quickly and without notice to changing market conditions. Acorn is under no obligation to update any of this information. The information we use is obtained from sources we believe to be accurate, however, that is not always the case so we make no guarantees. The information here does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell anything and should not be considered by anyone to be a substitute for their own judgement. Acorn is the manager of the Acorn Diversified Trust (the Fund). Important information about the Fund including risks, objective, strategy and fees is contained in the offering memorandum. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not and may not be used as a solicitation. If you wish to use any of this information, please ask permission.
March 15 - The Loonie is taking flight.
The Canadian Dollar has been spending several months consolidating gains from a large run higher over the previous year. It has very recently broke out of its range and has "Par" in sight. While there may be some resistance or a correction in the near-term, the long-term direction is clearly upwards.
This commentary is produced by Acorn Global Investments Inc. (“Acorn”). Opinions expressed here adapt quickly and without notice to changing market conditions. Acorn is under no obligation to update any of this information. The information we use is obtained from sources we believe to be accurate, however, that is not always the case so we make no guarantees. The information here does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell anything and should not be considered by anyone to be a substitute for their own judgement. Acorn is the manager of the Acorn Diversified Trust (the Fund). Important information about the Fund including risks, objective, strategy and fees is contained in the offering memorandum. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not and may not be used as a solicitation. If you wish to use any of this information, please ask permission.
February 5 - Will gold hold?
Gold dropped $49 yesterday. That is certainly a big move and it is worth watching. However, there is likely to be large support in the $1,000 - $1,050 range. Our short positions established in late 2009 have now been unwound as the market is no longer as overbought as it was. We are currently on the sidelines and are prepared to buy when the opportunity is right. What if the market definitively breaks $1,000? With a little time, we would very likely be short.
This commentary is produced by Acorn Global Investments Inc. (“Acorn”). Opinions expressed here adapt quickly and without notice to changing market conditions. Acorn is under no obligation to update any of this information. The information we use is obtained from sources we believe to be accurate, however, that is not always the case so we make no guarantees. The information here does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell anything and should not be considered by anyone to be a substitute for their own judgement. Acorn is the manager of the Acorn Diversified Trust (the Fund). Important information about the Fund including risks, objective, strategy and fees is contained in the offering memorandum. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not and may not be used as a solicitation. If you wish to use any of this information, please ask permission.
January 25 - Equities are halfway there...
A longer term view of the S&P 500 provides some perspective on the last few years. The market is currently about halfway between the 2007 highs and the 2009 lows. The current upmove of approximately 500 points from the mid 600s to the mid 1,100s took only about 217 market days. The previous downmove of 500 points from the mid 1,100s to the mid 600s was even faster at 106 days. To put the speed of these moves in perspective, the last time the market moved up 500 points from the mid 1,100 level was in 2003 and it took approximately 1076 days. So, is the next 500 points up or down? Will it happen slowly over 1000 days or quickly over 100 days? As an old teacher of mine would say: "The answers are: yes, and yes." The lesson is to remain humble, accept what is and remain focused on the task at hand.
This commentary is produced by Acorn Global Investments Inc. (“Acorn”). Opinions expressed here adapt quickly and without notice to changing market conditions. Acorn is under no obligation to update any of this information. The information we use is obtained from sources we believe to be accurate, however, that is not always the case so we make no guarantees. The information here does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell anything and should not be considered by anyone to be a substitute for their own judgement. Acorn is the manager of the Acorn Diversified Trust (the Fund). Important information about the Fund including risks, objective, strategy and fees is contained in the offering memorandum. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not and may not be used as a solicitation. If you wish to use any of this information, please ask permission.
December 31 - European bonds look weak
The 10 year Bunds have recently broken intermediate term support as prices fall and yields rise in Europe. This weakness combined with the fact that the longer term picture lacks upside strength and that US bonds have continued to move lower warrants attention. The price response during the next flight to safety will be telling and important to observe. Our short positions in bonds are slowly expanding.
This commentary is produced by Acorn Global Investments Inc. (“Acorn”). Opinions expressed here adapt quickly and without notice to changing market conditions. Acorn is under no obligation to update any of this information. The information we use is obtained from sources we believe to be accurate, however, that is not always the case so we make no guarantees. The information here does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell anything and should not be considered by anyone to be a substitute for their own judgement. Acorn is the manager of the Acorn Diversified Trust (the Fund). Important information about the Fund including risks, objective, strategy and fees is contained in the offering memorandum. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not and may not be used as a solicitation. If you wish to use any of this information, please ask permission.
December 7 - Short signals on long bonds
Bonds maturing in less than two years and even out to five years continue to attract capital and thus, prices have continued to climb. However, on the longer end of the yield curve, the 10 year and 30 year US bonds have been weakening and recently have given some short signals. It will be interesting to monitor the profitability of these positions and to see if the trade spreads around the world and down the curve.
This commentary is produced by Acorn Global Investments Inc. (“Acorn”). Opinions expressed here adapt quickly and without notice to changing market conditions. Acorn is under no obligation to update any of this information. The information we use is obtained from sources we believe to be accurate, however, that is not always the case so we make no guarantees. The information here does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell anything and should not be considered by anyone to be a substitute for their own judgement. Acorn is the manager of the Acorn Diversified Trust (the Fund). Important information about the Fund including risks, objective, strategy and fees is contained in the offering memorandum. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not and may not be used as a solicitation. If you wish to use any of this information, please ask permission.
November 2 - Time to pick Cotton?
After a stunning rise earlier this year, Cotton spent most of the summer and fall in a holding pattern as it seemed to be digesting those large gains. Recently, Cotton has broken through resistance and has held nicely there for a couple of weeks. The general direction of the trend is up and recent strength has been in alignment with the trend so we are long. The proposed reasons why prices have been rising do not really matter to us. For those that need a reason, Arkansas and Mississipi have just experienced the wettest October in 114 years which is causing boll rot which in turn could reduce supply...
This commentary is produced by Acorn Global Investments Inc. (“Acorn”). Opinions expressed here adapt quickly and without notice to changing market conditions. Acorn is under no obligation to update any of this information. The information we use is obtained from sources we believe to be accurate, however, that is not always the case so we make no guarantees. The information here does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell anything and should not be considered by anyone to be a substitute for their own judgement. Acorn is the manager of the Acorn Diversified Trust (the Fund). Important information about the Fund including risks, objective, strategy and fees is contained in the offering memorandum. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not and may not be used as a solicitation. If you wish to use any of this information, please ask permission.
October 20 - C$ par on the radar
The Canadian dollar has been gaining momentum recently against the US dollar. Par is only a couple good days work away. We have been long and will likely remain biased that way for awhile. While we would love to see the Canadian $ fly through par and not look back, we are prepared for all outcomes including a potential collapse after tagging par or the more likely scenario of waffling around the par level before moving higher. In the meantime, Canadians will be soon be focused on crossing the border for their holiday shopping this year.
This commentary is produced by Acorn Global Investments Inc. (“Acorn”). Opinions expressed here adapt quickly and without notice to changing market conditions. Acorn is under no obligation to update any of this information. The information we use is obtained from sources we believe to be accurate, however, that is not always the case so we make no guarantees. The information here does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell anything and should not be considered by anyone to be a substitute for their own judgement. Acorn is the manager of the Acorn Diversified Trust (the Fund). Important information about the Fund including risks, objective, strategy and fees is contained in the offering memorandum. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not and may not be used as a solicitation. If you wish to use any of this information, please ask permission.
October 14 - Copper watch
In 2008, copper dropped down about 63% from the July highs. In 2009 copper is up over 100% and still needs to rise another 47% from here to reach the July 2008 levels. At this point, it looks like copper has been taking a well deserved rest for the past couple of months allowing prices to drift back toward the longer term trendline. Price movements between 270 and 300 have been meaningless. However, the importance of the lower end of that range will be rising soon as the trendline approaches. A significant move through either the 270 level on the downside or the 300 level on the upside could provide an interesting leading indicator to watch over the coming weeks and months.
This commentary is produced by Acorn Global Investments Inc. (“Acorn”). Opinions expressed here adapt quickly and without notice to changing market conditions. Acorn is under no obligation to update any of this information. The information we use is obtained from sources we believe to be accurate, however, that is not always the case so we make no guarantees. The information here does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell anything and should not be considered by anyone to be a substitute for their own judgement. Acorn is the manager of the Acorn Diversified Trust (the Fund). Important information about the Fund including risks, objective, strategy and fees is contained in the offering memorandum. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not and may not be used as a solicitation. If you wish to use any of this information, please ask permission.
October 2 - Safety is spreading
In the midst of the financial crisis, G8 government bonds at all points along the yield curve rallied to new highs as investors scrambled towards safety. While short-term bonds have continued higher in 2009, bond prices from the 5 year to 30 year range began going sideways earlier this year as expectations of distress that far in the future began to subside. However, we are noticing that the bond prices in the 5 to 30 year range have been gathering momentum again over the last couple of months. We are positioned on the long side in a diversified mix of government bonds around the world and are also actively reducing risk elswhere in the portfolio as our systematic approach reacts to the price changes in currencies, metals, energy and equities.
This commentary is produced by Acorn Global Investments Inc. (“Acorn”). Opinions expressed here adapt quickly and without notice to changing market conditions. Acorn is under no obligation to update any of this information. The information we use is obtained from sources we believe to be accurate, however, that is not always the case so we make no guarantees. The information here does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell anything and should not be considered by anyone to be a substitute for their own judgement. Acorn is the manager of the Acorn Diversified Trust (the Fund). Important information about the Fund including risks, objective, strategy and fees is contained in the offering memorandum. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not and may not be used as a solicitation. If you wish to use any of this information, please ask permission.
September 9 - Gold crosses $1,000...again.
In early 2008, gold crossed above $1,000 for a couple of weeks and was summarily rejected as it dropped over $150 in the following months. It tried again in the summer of 2008 with barely a day over $1,000 before dropping nearly $300. In early 2009 after a strong rally from the lows of late 2008 gold spent a day over $1,000 before falling about $125. So here we are again with gold at $1,000. What to do? Often times, the hard trades are the best trades. Buying gold at $1,000 has certainly punished buyers before and buying gold may very well punish again. Are there more rejections ahead or is the trade getting ripe? The fact is that we do not know what the immediate future holds. However, we have found that in situations like this in gold and in many other markets that it is best to be long AND prepared to be wrong. Allowing the magnitude of our occasional gains to greatly exceed the size of frequent smaller losses works. It is simply a matter of time and frequency of opportunities across a wide variety of markets. Thus, the fund is long with an exit price that is predetermined before every trading day to minimize our losses if we are wrong.
This commentary is produced by Acorn Global Investments Inc. (“Acorn”). Opinions expressed here adapt quickly and without notice to changing market conditions. Acorn is under no obligation to update any of this information. The information we use is obtained from sources we believe to be accurate, however, that is not always the case so we make no guarantees. The information here does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell anything and should not be considered by anyone to be a substitute for their own judgement. Acorn is the manager of the Acorn Diversified Trust (the Fund). Important information about the Fund including risks, objective, strategy and fees is contained in the offering memorandum. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not and may not be used as a solicitation. If you wish to use any of this information, please ask permission.
August 25 - Spain is in the black again.
Of the many equity markets that we watch, the IBEX 35 which is an index comprised of Spain's 35 most liquid stocks is one of the rare few that can say they are positive over the last year. Many global equity markets are still down 15 - 20% over the last twelve months. While Spain's positive number is a slim single digit, it stands out among a sea of red. If you have a look at the chart, you will see that it will be easier for the IBEX and all equity markets for that matter to start claiming positive annual returns as the price level from one year ago gets easier to beat. If equities can get through the Autumn by treading water, it could set the stage for a longer term bull move in global equities. As that "IF" plays out, we will adapt to the direction of the markets with our position risk measured carefully against market volatility.
This commentary is produced by Acorn Global Investments Inc. (“Acorn”). Opinions expressed here adapt quickly and without notice to changing market conditions. Acorn is under no obligation to update any of this information. The information we use is obtained from sources we believe to be accurate, however, that is not always the case so we make no guarantees. The information here does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell anything and should not be considered by anyone to be a substitute for their own judgement. Acorn is the manager of the Acorn Diversified Trust (the Fund). Important information about the Fund including risks, objective, strategy and fees is contained in the offering memorandum. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not and may not be used as a solicitation. If you wish to use any of this information, please ask permission.
August 13 - Is Zinc on the brink or will it sink?
Zinc has enjoyed a very strong run from the March lows outpacing the strong run in equities over the same period. It is on the brink of being on our radar for buying but it still has some work to do either in terms of time and/or price as it is currently classified as a "sideways" market. After such a strong run, it could easily pull back to support around 1500 without disrupting the shorter-term uptrend.
This commentary is produced by Acorn Global Investments Inc. (“Acorn”). Opinions expressed here adapt quickly and without notice to changing market conditions. Acorn is under no obligation to update any of this information. The information we use is obtained from sources we believe to be accurate, however, that is not always the case so we make no guarantees. The information here does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell anything and should not be considered by anyone to be a substitute for their own judgement. Acorn is the manager of the Acorn Diversified Trust (the Fund). Important information about the Fund including risks, objective, strategy and fees is contained in the offering memorandum. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not and may not be used as a solicitation. If you wish to use any of this information, please ask permission.
August 5 - Sugar highs.
Sugar has been making new highs since the end of June and has been one of the strongest commodity markets in the world over the last quarter. We are positioned in alignment with the direction of this market as our trend indicators and entry signals are all pointing up. The fundamental view is that production is less than consumption and that sugar stocks are near 15 year lows. India in particular has taken measures to boost imports and stabilize supplies. While the fundamentals support our position, we look to the price as our best guide.
This commentary is produced by Acorn Global Investments Inc. (“Acorn”). Opinions expressed here adapt quickly and without notice to changing market conditions. Acorn is under no obligation to update any of this information. The information we use is obtained from sources we believe to be accurate, however, that is not always the case so we make no guarantees. The information here does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell anything and should not be considered by anyone to be a substitute for their own judgement. Acorn is the manager of the Acorn Diversified Trust (the Fund). Important information about the Fund including risks, objective, strategy and fees is contained in the offering memorandum. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not and may not be used as a solicitation. If you wish to use any of this information, please ask permission.
July 20 - Corn has lost its pop.
Corn is down over 20% in the last month and 50% in the last 12 months. It rallied 36% from its bottom in December only to fail again recently as it has broken to new lows. While the market seems due to for a rally or at least a pause given the rapid nature of its recent decline, there is very little support seen below these levels. Those arguing for food inflation no longer have an ally in grain prices...
This commentary is produced by Acorn Global Investments Inc. (“Acorn”). Opinions expressed here adapt quickly and without notice to changing market conditions. Acorn is under no obligation to update any of this information. The information we use is obtained from sources we believe to be accurate, however, that is not always the case so we make no guarantees. The information here does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell anything and should not be considered by anyone to be a substitute for their own judgement. Acorn is the manager of the Acorn Diversified Trust (the Fund). Important information about the Fund including risks, objective, strategy and fees is contained in the offering memorandum. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not and may not be used as a solicitation. If you wish to use any of this information, please ask permission.
July 10 - Global equities are moving lower.
The strong upward move in global equities from the lows in early March has lost momentum and is rolling over. Whether new lows lie ahead is anybody's guess. However, the long-term downward trend combined with recent downside strength certainly points in that direction.
This commentary is produced by Acorn Global Investments Inc. (“Acorn”). Opinions expressed here adapt quickly and without notice to changing market conditions. Acorn is under no obligation to update any of this information. The information we use is obtained from sources we believe to be accurate, however, that is not always the case so we make no guarantees. The information here does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell anything and should not be considered by anyone to be a substitute for their own judgement. Acorn is the manager of the Acorn Diversified Trust (the Fund). Important information about the Fund including risks, objective, strategy and fees is contained in the offering memorandum. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not and may not be used as a solicitation. If you wish to use any of this information, please ask permission.
July 2 - Japanese bonds edge higher.
The Japanese Government Bond (JGB) was one of the strongest performers in June with a particularly strong surge higher in the last two weeks. The wide open volatility experienced in the autumn of 2008 has settled down and the market seems to be somewhat stable. Interestingly, while U.S. Treasuries outperformed JGBs during and after the height of the crisis in 2008, JGBs have outperformed since. Why? We don't know. What we do know is that if you spent the last two weeks trying to figure out why the market is moving, you would have missed a great trade. The market is relatively close to passing the all-time highs set in March 2008. While the market may be due for a pullback in the very near term, it will be interesting to watch over the coming weeks and months.
This commentary is produced by Acorn Global Investments Inc. (“Acorn”). Opinions expressed here adapt quickly and without notice to changing market conditions. Acorn is under no obligation to update any of this information. The information we use is obtained from sources we believe to be accurate, however, that is not always the case so we make no guarantees. The information here does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell anything and should not be considered by anyone to be a substitute for their own judgement. Acorn is the manager of the Acorn Diversified Trust (the Fund). Important information about the Fund including risks, objective, strategy and fees is contained in the offering memorandum. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not and may not be used as a solicitation. If you wish to use any of this information, please ask permission.
June 17 - Gold is still on hold.
We are neutral on gold. We could go long above $1,000 or short somewhere below $900. The market clearly remains less convinced than the general public does about the future of gold. While we would be very involved in any up move, we are equally aware that the contrarian trade has potential as well. The real risk in gold always lies less in the metal itself than it does in the conviction of the holder. While we could trade gold either way from here, we will always have a clear exit price determined before every trading day.
This commentary is produced by Acorn Global Investments Inc. (“Acorn”). Opinions expressed here adapt quickly and without notice to changing market conditions. Acorn is under no obligation to update any of this information. The information we use is obtained from sources we believe to be accurate, however, that is not always the case so we make no guarantees. The information here does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell anything and should not be considered by anyone to be a substitute for their own judgement. Acorn is the manager of the Acorn Diversified Trust (the Fund). Important information about the Fund including risks, objective, strategy and fees is contained in the offering memorandum. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not and may not be used as a solicitation. If you wish to use any of this information, please ask permission.
June 8 - May we have your attention please?
Bond prices across the entire yield curve dropped on Friday as yields jumped higher. Nowhere was this more evident than on the short end of the curve. Eurodollars and Two year notes which have been safe harbours for the past couple of years saw large losses during the session. Was this just a bad day or is it a sign of things to come? Is the recession over? Is it time to start fighting inflation before it kicks in? Does the U.S. want to raise rates or does it need to? What are the implications for the dollar and equities? We do not profess to know all of the answers, however, paying close attention to the price action at times like these often provides better guidance than trying to decipher the flurry of opinions on the future direction of rates, currencies and equities.
This commentary is produced by Acorn Global Investments Inc. (“Acorn”). Opinions expressed here adapt quickly and without notice to changing market conditions. Acorn is under no obligation to update any of this information. The information we use is obtained from sources we believe to be accurate, however, that is not always the case so we make no guarantees. The information here does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell anything and should not be considered by anyone to be a substitute for their own judgement. Acorn is the manager of the Acorn Diversified Trust (the Fund). Important information about the Fund including risks, objective, strategy and fees is contained in the offering memorandum. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not and may not be used as a solicitation. If you wish to use any of this information, please ask permission.
June 1 - Will Crude double or is it in trouble?
It took from the summer of 2008 until December 2008 for Crude Oil to deflate from high to low. Could we see the inverse from summer 2009 to December 2009? Breaking through and holding above $60 so far has certainly been impressive. The big question is: Is this just a big oversold bounce or is it the beginning of a real uptrend? On our screens, the oversold condition has now been completely worked off and any "bottom-picking" long positions have been reduced but not yet eliminated as the long-term downtrend still commands a little respect.
This commentary is produced by Acorn Global Investments Inc. (“Acorn”). Opinions expressed here adapt quickly and without notice to changing market conditions. Acorn is under no obligation to update any of this information. The information we use is obtained from sources we believe to be accurate, however, that is not always the case so we make no guarantees. The information here does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell anything and should not be considered by anyone to be a substitute for their own judgement. Acorn is the manager of the Acorn Diversified Trust (the Fund). Important information about the Fund including risks, objective, strategy and fees is contained in the offering memorandum. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not and may not be used as a solicitation. If you wish to use any of this information, please ask permission.
May 25 - Can the Canadian Dollar hold?
The recent strength in the Canadian Dollar has been impressive as it is making new highs for 2009 after hitting lows around the high .70s in March. While Par is back in sight, the market is still technically in a longer-term downtrend. From our perspective, it seems wise to wait before committing to the long side. Time and price will lead the way for us over the coming months.
This commentary is produced by Acorn Global Investments Inc. (“Acorn”). Opinions expressed here adapt quickly and without notice to changing market conditions. Acorn is under no obligation to update any of this information. The information we use is obtained from sources we believe to be accurate, however, that is not always the case so we make no guarantees. The information here does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell anything and should not be considered by anyone to be a substitute for their own judgement. Acorn is the manager of the Acorn Diversified Trust (the Fund). Important information about the Fund including risks, objective, strategy and fees is contained in the offering memorandum. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not and may not be used as a solicitation. If you wish to use any of this information, please ask permission.
May 19 - Soybean Meal still leads the grains.
All of the grains are still technically in bear markets with Corn and Wheat still hovering relatively close to their lows. However, as noted a few weeks ago, Soybean Meal has been leading the way higher and that early strength has seen some follow through recently. While the market may be due for a rest to catch it's breath, it is not much more than 50 points away from the July highs. Meanwhile, Corn and Wheat would both need to nearly double to reach their new highs. It will be interesting to see whether Soybean Meal can hold and build on these gains.
This commentary is produced by Acorn Global Investments Inc. (“Acorn”). Opinions expressed here adapt quickly and without notice to changing market conditions. Acorn is under no obligation to update any of this information. The information we use is obtained from sources we believe to be accurate, however, that is not always the case so we make no guarantees. The information here does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell anything and should not be considered by anyone to be a substitute for their own judgement. Acorn is the manager of the Acorn Diversified Trust (the Fund). Important information about the Fund including risks, objective, strategy and fees is contained in the offering memorandum. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not and may not be used as a solicitation. If you wish to use any of this information, please ask permission.
May 12 - Eurodollars - Into Thin Air?
Demand for Eurodollar deposits (US Dollar deposits outside of the US) has been very high and this price chart is clear evidence of that. The volatile rise through 2008 has been replaced by a more subdued rise in 2009. If this market hits 100, the rate paid on US Dollar deposits will be 0%. Can market prices really go higher (yield lower) from here? Yes. Is the reward relative to the risk less attractive than it was a year ago? Yes. Should position exposure adapt to reflect that? Absolutely.
This commentary is produced by Acorn Global Investments Inc. (“Acorn”). Opinions expressed here adapt quickly and without notice to changing market conditions. Acorn is under no obligation to update any of this information. The information we use is obtained from sources we believe to be accurate, however, that is not always the case so we make no guarantees. The information here does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell anything and should not be considered by anyone to be a substitute for their own judgement. Acorn is the manager of the Acorn Diversified Trust (the Fund). Important information about the Fund including risks, objective, strategy and fees is contained in the offering memorandum. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not and may not be used as a solicitation. If you wish to use any of this information, please ask permission.
May 8 - Cotton is making a move.
After a long and steady downtrend in 2008 that saw prices drop about 60%, Cotton may have made a bottom in December and is up nearly 50% in 2009. The market tested those lows in March and has broken through to new 2009 highs in the past week. While the long-term downtrend stills commands respect, the market may be an interesting one to watch.
This commentary is produced by Acorn Global Investments Inc. (“Acorn”). Opinions expressed here adapt quickly and without notice to changing market conditions. Acorn is under no obligation to update any of this information. The information we use is obtained from sources we believe to be accurate, however, that is not always the case so we make no guarantees. The information here does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell anything and should not be considered by anyone to be a substitute for their own judgement. Acorn is the manager of the Acorn Diversified Trust (the Fund). Important information about the Fund including risks, objective, strategy and fees is contained in the offering memorandum. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not and may not be used as a solicitation. If you wish to use any of this information, please ask permission.
May 5 - Bulls score! Still behind by 4.
The S&P 500 moved through recent resistance with relative ease yesterday bringing the market to about breakeven for 2009. It has been an impressive climb from the lows in March. Our counter-trend systems have been participating in the rise but the oversold nature of the market is all but gone and the system has greatly reduced exposure. In fact, with a few more days of strength, the S&P could move to a "neutral" position with our overbought/oversold indicator for the first time since May 19, 2008. We wish the Bull good luck. With four resistance levels above and the oversold nature of the market resolved, it may need it.
This commentary is produced by Acorn Global Investments Inc. (“Acorn”). Opinions expressed here adapt quickly and without notice to changing market conditions. Acorn is under no obligation to update any of this information. The information we use is obtained from sources we believe to be accurate, however, that is not always the case so we make no guarantees. The information here does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell anything and should not be considered by anyone to be a substitute for their own judgement. Acorn is the manager of the Acorn Diversified Trust (the Fund). Important information about the Fund including risks, objective, strategy and fees is contained in the offering memorandum. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not and may not be used as a solicitation. If you wish to use any of this information, please ask permission.
April 29 - US Treasury Bonds - Stand aside.
The long bond is looking like a tired horse. It has been ridden hard since the summer of 2007 and has been struggling since the beginning of this year. It is currently trading at a support level last tested in late February/early March. While the percentages point towards a resumption of the uptrend, the lower probability and higher potential magnitude of a downtrend should be carefully considered. In the end, standing aside and being a spectator rather than a speculator for now seems wise.
This commentary is produced by Acorn Global Investments Inc. (“Acorn”). Opinions expressed here adapt quickly and without notice to changing market conditions. Acorn is under no obligation to update any of this information. The information we use is obtained from sources we believe to be accurate, however, that is not always the case so we make no guarantees. The information here does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell anything and should not be considered by anyone to be a substitute for their own judgement. Acorn is the manager of the Acorn Diversified Trust (the Fund). Important information about the Fund including risks, objective, strategy and fees is contained in the offering memorandum. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not and may not be used as a solicitation. If you wish to use any of this information, please ask permission.
April 24 - The strongest market in the world?
The Euribor represents the interest rate at which European banks offer to lend unsecured funds to other banks. The price chart below illustrates the inverse of yield so the higher the number, the lower the yield. Clearly, this has been one of the strongest markets in the world over the last year. The two one year periods on the chart show the massive change in volatility and price levels before and after the credit crisis. By our measures, the market is extended and while the trend is still greatly respected, so is the potential downside.
This commentary is produced by Acorn Global Investments Inc. (“Acorn”). Opinions expressed here adapt quickly and without notice to changing market conditions. Acorn is under no obligation to update any of this information. The information we use is obtained from sources we believe to be accurate, however, that is not always the case so we make no guarantees. The information here does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell anything and should not be considered by anyone to be a substitute for their own judgement. Acorn is the manager of the Acorn Diversified Trust (the Fund). Important information about the Fund including risks, objective, strategy and fees is contained in the offering memorandum. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not and may not be used as a solicitation. If you wish to use any of this information, please ask permission.
April 23 - Is it time for grains to gain?
The entire grains sector has been under pressure since the summer of '08. Currently, every grain we follow is in a down trend with one exception - Soybean Meal. Soymeal has edged higher and is now by our measures officially "sideways". It still has some work to do before getting us to buy. Nonetheless, it is the leader on the upside in grains and it is worth watching. If it can hold on to its gains, it could bode well for all of the grains.
This commentary is produced by Acorn Global Investments Inc. (“Acorn”). Opinions expressed here adapt quickly and without notice to changing market conditions. Acorn is under no obligation to update any of this information. The information we use is obtained from sources we believe to be accurate, however, that is not always the case so we make no guarantees. The information here does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell anything and should not be considered by anyone to be a substitute for their own judgement. Acorn is the manager of the Acorn Diversified Trust (the Fund). Important information about the Fund including risks, objective, strategy and fees is contained in the offering memorandum. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not and may not be used as a solicitation. If you wish to use any of this information, please ask permission.
April 20 - The Dollar Index remains firm.
After testing new highs in early March, the Dollar Index fell hard. However, at the end of March and so far through April, the Dollar seems to have found support. The direction of the trend is still clearly up and the market is no longer looking as extended as it did in late 2008. The real proof that the trend is strong would be a convincing break through the 90 level.
This commentary is produced by Acorn Global Investments Inc. (“Acorn”). Opinions expressed here adapt quickly and without notice to changing market conditions. Acorn is under no obligation to update any of this information. The information we use is obtained from sources we believe to be accurate, however, that is not always the case so we make no guarantees. The information here does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell anything and should not be considered by anyone to be a substitute for their own judgement. Acorn is the manager of the Acorn Diversified Trust (the Fund). Important information about the Fund including risks, objective, strategy and fees is contained in the offering memorandum. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not and may not be used as a solicitation. If you wish to use any of this information, please ask permission.
April 15 - Lumber is building support.
Lumber prices have found support twice this year around $150/m. Since the end of February, Lumber has been steadily rising from that level. However, support is still under construction as the overall trend is very clearly down. Higher lows and higher highs are needed before taking a bullish view of the lumber market. Time will tell.
This commentary is produced by Acorn Global Investments Inc. (“Acorn”). Opinions expressed here adapt quickly and without notice to changing market conditions. Acorn is under no obligation to update any of this information. The information we use is obtained from sources we believe to be accurate, however, that is not always the case so we make no guarantees. The information here does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell anything and should not be considered by anyone to be a substitute for their own judgement. Acorn is the manager of the Acorn Diversified Trust (the Fund). Important information about the Fund including risks, objective, strategy and fees is contained in the offering memorandum. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not and may not be used as a solicitation. If you wish to use any of this information, please ask permission.
April 9 - The smoothest trend award goes to...Natural Gas!
After a breathtaking drop last summer to start the downtrend, natural gas has continued to steadily sink lower and lower and lower. By our measures, the downtrend is extended and at risk of ending. However, our bias remains short. We first noticed the trend was at risk in October and it has dropped in half since then! The trend is your friend until it bends at the end. So far there has been no significant bend upwards, but we are watching.
This commentary is produced by Acorn Global Investments Inc. (“Acorn”). Opinions expressed here adapt quickly and without notice to changing market conditions. Acorn is under no obligation to update any of this information. The information we use is obtained from sources we believe to be accurate, however, that is not always the case so we make no guarantees. The information here does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell anything and should not be considered by anyone to be a substitute for their own judgement. Acorn is the manager of the Acorn Diversified Trust (the Fund). Important information about the Fund including risks, objective, strategy and fees is contained in the offering memorandum. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not and may not be used as a solicitation. If you wish to use any of this information, please ask permission.
April 8 - Copper is crawling out of the red.
After dropping about 65% from the highs of last summer, Copper has been steadily crawling higher in 2009. While our bias is still on the short side, we are keeping a close eye on this market. New lows are still not out of the question and we will likely need to see some time pass before taking any significant action on the upside. There is upside resistance at $2, $2.50 and heavy resistance at $3.
This commentary is produced by Acorn Global Investments Inc. (“Acorn”). Opinions expressed here adapt quickly and without notice to changing market conditions. Acorn is under no obligation to update any of this information. The information we use is obtained from sources we believe to be accurate, however, that is not always the case so we make no guarantees. The information here does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell anything and should not be considered by anyone to be a substitute for their own judgement. Acorn is the manager of the Acorn Diversified Trust (the Fund). Important information about the Fund including risks, objective, strategy and fees is contained in the offering memorandum. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not and may not be used as a solicitation. If you wish to use any of this information, please ask permission.
April 7 - The Fact is...Gold is Down.
It is hard to believe that with everything that has happened in the last year and that with everything that doomsayers are expecting to happen in the years to come, gold is DOWN. Many of the arguments for higher gold prices make perfect sense and may indeed come true. However, as long as gold is going down, our bias is to short it. Of course, if in fact it turns up and convincingly makes new highs, our bias will adapt to the long side.
This commentary is produced by Acorn Global Investments Inc. (“Acorn”). Opinions expressed here adapt quickly and without notice to changing market conditions. Acorn is under no obligation to update any of this information. The information we use is obtained from sources we believe to be accurate, however, that is not always the case so we make no guarantees. The information here does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell anything and should not be considered by anyone to be a substitute for their own judgement. Acorn is the manager of the Acorn Diversified Trust (the Fund). Important information about the Fund including risks, objective, strategy and fees is contained in the offering memorandum. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not and may not be used as a solicitation. If you wish to use any of this information, please ask permission.
April 4 - Are Bonds Catching Their Breath or Rolling Over?
Price action in European, Asian and North American bonds is quietly interesting. For example, the U.S. Two Year Note has been a leading recipient of cash flow in the flight to safety since the credit crisis began. By our measures, the trend is still clearly up but it is at risk of being extended. Despite recently hitting new highs, momentum has slowed and there has been some downside strength in the past few days. Our system has entered exploratory shorts against some trusty old long positions that may help offset risk and be ready to take advantage of any follow-through on the downside. Alternatively, if the uptrend re-asserts itself, some upside potential will be given up. We do not know which direction bonds are going to go. All we know is that right now, they are looking tired.
This commentary is produced by Acorn Global Investments Inc. (“Acorn”). Opinions expressed here adapt quickly and without notice to changing market conditions. Acorn is under no obligation to update any of this information. The information we use is obtained from sources we believe to be accurate, however, that is not always the case so we make no guarantees. The information here does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell anything and should not be considered by anyone to be a substitute for their own judgement. Acorn is the manager of the Acorn Diversified Trust (the Fund). Important information about the Fund including risks, objective, strategy and fees is contained in the offering memorandum. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not and may not be used as a solicitation. If you wish to use any of this information, please ask permission.
April 3, 2009 - Have we become comfortably numb?
Brent Crude Oil was up 8.69% yesterday. It was the strongest market among a long list of big movers yesterday including the Hang Seng Index and Heating Oil. Yet, have a look at the chart of Brent Crude...Yawn. It is in a range between $40 and $60. It used to be that a 50% move from $40 to $60 was a colossal move. However, in the big picture, the trend is still down and we are still short biased. To switch to a long bias, the market would need to break through $60 with authority and then hold it. Until then, it may indeed be better to sit and go numb on one end rather than do something dumb on the other.
This commentary is produced by Acorn Global Investments Inc. (“Acorn”). Opinions expressed here adapt quickly and without notice to changing market conditions. Acorn is under no obligation to update any of this information. The information we use is obtained from sources we believe to be accurate, however, that is not always the case so we make no guarantees. The information here does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell anything and should not be considered by anyone to be a substitute for their own judgement. Acorn is the manager of the Acorn Diversified Trust (the Fund). Important information about the Fund including risks, objective, strategy and fees is contained in the offering memorandum. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not and may not be used as a solicitation. If you wish to use any of this information, please ask permission.
April 2, 2009 - Is the bear market in equities over?
The recent strength has certainly been impressive. However, the equity market has a long way to go on the upside before we are convinced. Downside risk remains high. If trading against a long-term trend like this, it is wise to trade small or not at all.
This commentary is produced by Acorn Global Investments Inc. (“Acorn”). Opinions expressed here adapt quickly and without notice to changing market conditions. Acorn is under no obligation to update any of this information. The information we use is obtained from sources we believe to be accurate, however, that is not always the case so we make no guarantees. The information here does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell anything and should not be considered by anyone to be a substitute for their own judgement. Acorn is the manager of the Acorn Diversified Trust (the Fund). Important information about the Fund including risks, objective, strategy and fees is contained in the offering memorandum. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not and may not be used as a solicitation. If you wish to use any of this information, please ask permission.